Christopher Morel has delivered class juice for fantasy baseball managers who landed him late in drafts. (AP Picture/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Few fantasy analysts can stand the warmth — and ship it — like Dalton Del Don. He’ll convey his blazing fantasy baseball takes right here each week, that can assist you maintain the hearth burning in your leagues. And talking of fireplace …
Morel proving to be an enormous draft cut price
Christopher Morel’s .228 batting common comes with a .283 anticipated batting common. He’s lower his Ok% (21.8) manner down whereas showing improved contact metrics. After a disappointing April (.608 OPS), Morel has 5 homers and two steals over 11 video games in Might, posting one of the highest xwOBAs in the league over the past two weeks. Morel ranks sixth in Statcast’s newly launched “common bat velocity,” sandwiched between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Aaron Decide.
Someone can still be successful hitting the ball softly, however bat speed matters.
Morel’s .235 BABIP is bound to regress, particularly given his spectacular batted-ball profile. He’s eligible at 2B/3B/OF in Yahoo leagues and hitting cleanup behind Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger. Morel is on tempo to complete with 36 homers, 16 steals, 87 runs scored and 107 RBI regardless of having one of many greatest variations in wOBA and xwOBA within the league.
Morel finishes as a top-25 fantasy hitter this yr — regardless of going off the board in Spherical 18 of 10-team drafts — if well being permits.
Adell lastly delivering on promise
Jo Adell is a former prime prospect who’s seemingly lastly placing all of it collectively. After sitting back-to-back video games in late April, Adell has six homers and two steals (with three CS) over 65 at-bats (19 video games). His anticipated batting common and anticipated slugging proportion are each within the prime 7% of the league this season. Adell’s new swing has produced impressive results, together with rating top-10 in xwOBA. Adell additionally ranks top-10 in “average bat speed,” sandwiched between Aaron Decide, Julio Rodríguez and Juan Soto.
Adell has crucially dropped his Ok% (24.8) dramatically (he entered the season with a profession 35.4 Ok%), which should stabilize at this point. Adell shouldn’t have any downside shifting greater up in LA’s depleted lineup, and his 12 SB makes an attempt over simply 94 ABs counsel there’s actual stolen base upside. One way or the other, he stays out there in 50% of Yahoo leagues.
Adell goes 30/20 this season regardless of not changing into a full-time participant till late April.
Pasquantino places gradual begin behind him
Vinnie Pasquantino had a .322 OPS 10 video games into the season, however he’s hit .300/.370/.570 with 5 house runs and 25 RBI over 100 at-bats since. Pasquantino has recorded extra walks than strikeouts this season, and his .248 batting common is accompanied by a .294 xBA. Pasquantino is hitting simply .234 (.226 BABIP!) regardless of a 13:19 Ok:BB ratio towards right-handed pitchers this season.
Pasquantino has essentially the most barrels within the league over the last 100 swings, and he’s been one of many unluckiest hitters over the last three weeks. The Royals are top-10 in runs scored, and Pasquantino is batting third between Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez. Kauffman Stadium suppresses house runs for left-handed batters, however it’s a extremely favorable hitter’s park in each different manner (together with lowering Ks).
My Cousin Vinnie hits .300 over the remainder of the season.
Rooker benefiting from Might
Brent Rooker remained out there in lots of fantasy leagues up till not too long ago (thanks partly to an IL stint in April), however he belongs locked in fantasy lineups the remainder of the way in which. A hunch is bound to come back ultimately, given Rooker’s Ok% (32.2), however he’s as much as 5 homers with 14 RBI over 10 video games in Might. Rooker has now clubbed 40 house runs over the past 569 at-bats since final season. He’s bumped up his stroll price and is accumulating way more counting stats this yr whereas hitting in the midst of an A’s lineup that quietly leads MLB in wRC+ in Might. Rooker’s 187 wRC+ would rank third amongst certified hitters, and he sports activities one of many league’s highest xwOBAs over the last two weeks.
Rooker’s batting common (and .368 BABIP) is bound to drop, however 35 homers and 100 RBI are coming.
Skenes shall be a fantasy difference-maker
Paul Skenes lived as much as the hype throughout his MLB debut even when the outcomes didn’t present it. His 6.75 ERA got here with a 2.84 SIERA and a 31.0% CSW. His stuff graded as the best of the night amongst starters, and Skenes has already thrown the third-most 100+ mph pitches (17) amongst beginning pitchers in 2024 after one begin. The highest pitching prospect put up video-game-like numbers within the minors this yr, recording a 0.99 ERA with a 35.2 Ok-BB% in Triple-A.
Projecting rookies is at all times difficult, and Pittsburgh’s poor protection gained’t assist, however Skenes has the talents to be one in every of fantasy’s best starters earlier than reaching his innings restrict this season.
Cruz hitting his stride after robust stretch
Oneil Cruz raised his OPS 131 factors over Pittsburgh’s eight-game homestand, when he hit .366 with 4 homers. He additionally dropped his Ok% from 36.8 down to fifteen.6 over that small pattern. Lefties stay a giant downside — Cruz has a 149 wRC+ vs. RHP however an 18 wRC+ towards southpaws — however his Ok% (34.1) has dramatically improved in comparison with 2022 (53.2%). Cruz’s .154 BABIP towards left-handers will regress, and his gradual April may be defined by lacking most of 2023 and an exceptionally difficult schedule. Cruz’s collective opposing pitchers ranked among the many finest in Pitching+ when Eno Sarris seemed into it final week, with the overwhelming majority of these hitters (who’ve confronted robust pitching) underperforming their preseason projections. This scheduling quirk figures to even out.
Cruz has the second-fastest bat speed within the league and shall be a top-30 choose in 2025 fantasy drafts.
Jeffers has been a waiver-wire gem
Ryan Jeffers bought off to a gradual begin to the season, however he’s batting .341 with a 1.104 OPS over the past month. Jeffers completed second in OPS amongst catchers final season, and he’s lower his Ok% (19.3) manner down this yr. He’s batting third between two lefties, and the catcher has appeared in 35 of 40 video games. Jeffers went undrafted in most one-catcher leagues, but he’s on tempo to hit 37 homers with 85 runs scored and 122 RBI.
Jeffers is a top-five fantasy catcher.
Blanco a sleeper to make main impression
Dairon Blanco is out there in 97% of Yahoo leagues however is a sneaky add for these in want of velocity. He’s within the prime 5% of the league in Dash Velocity and stole 71 bases over simply 297 at-bats throughout Triple-A and the majors final season. He has 10 steals (and a homer) with a 121 wRC+ in a part-time position this season (a 143 SB tempo over 600 PAs), and Blanco has began three of the final 4 video games (together with versus a righty). Hunter Renfroe (36 wRC+) and Nelson Velázquez (81) have struggled this season, and Blanco’s protection is best.
Blanco is a protracted shot however could possibly be an actual distinction maker in steals if he secures near a full-time position.
