Primary Occasion Tracker: Week 14 evaluate
This week was one other big punch to the intestine. Issues went so effectively by way of the primary 5 or 6 days on the week after which all the pieces got here crashing down with the pitching on Sunday. We have been having such a strong week throughout the board – regardless of being gentle on wins once more – however Sunday’s disasters utterly took the wind out of my sails as soon as once more.
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Hitting Overview
It’s arduous to essentially complain in regards to the offense this week, regardless that we got here up a bit gentle in pace. We bought to 313 at-bats on the week and did so whereas hitting most of our targets and crushing a number of of them.
We nonetheless didn’t get a lot from the catcher place, which is a pattern that I’m not loving. It’s good to have Willson Contreras again within the fold, however apart from three runs scored from him and his youthful brother, they didn’t present a lot juice this week.
Paul Goldschmidt homered and stole a base, however didn’t contribute a lot apart from that. He did have significantly better swings general although – regardless that the outcomes didn’t present it. I feel he’s going to have a giant Week 15.
Luis Rengifo is an absolute stud. There’s not a lot else I can say in regards to the man. He had 27 at-bats on the week and hit a blistering .407 with a pair of homers, eight runs scored, 4 RBI and a stolen base. What an absolute monster.
Talking of monsters, what per week for Jose Ramirez as soon as once more. Our staff chief hit .345 with seven runs scored, 4 homers, 9 RBI and a stolen base. Given the entire landmines that have been accessible within the first two rounds of the draft, we struck gold with our first hitter chosen.
Ezequiel Tovar sat the primary half of the week for us since he solely had two video games on the docket and didn’t do a complete lot over the weekend. He’s been terrific all yr although, so he will get a go. He additionally has a full week at Coors Discipline on faucet for Week 15.
Jurickson Profar homered and drove in seven runs, which is simply the kind of manufacturing that we’ve come to count on from him this season. He stays a fixture in our lineup. Tyler O’Neill homered and scored three runs, however solely bought 15 at-bats whole on the week and hit .133. RAndy Arozarena had a good common and swatted a solo homer however didn’t do a lot else. Jo Adell was ineffective within the half-week that we used him, then lastly homered in his remaining at-bat on Sunday on our bench.
Jarren Duran continues to excel, and although he didn’t make the most of his wheels this week, he did sock a pair of solo homers and rating 4 runs. Max Kepler had a fairly empty weekend in our lineup with a good common and a pair runs scored.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit .417 over 24 at-bats on the week and scored a team-leading 10 runs. He additionally chipped in a homer and two RBI. He has been moved as much as the second spot within the Jays’ lineup and has been thriving there. Justin Turner had one other strong week at our CI spot, hitting .333 with three runs scored and 4 RBI. We’ll take that each time.
David Fry wound up enjoying your complete week at utility for his, and although he hit .300 it was extraordinarily empty with only one RBI and nothing else. On condition that our largest deficit on offense is in RBI although, and Fry hits fifth in a robust lineup when he performs, he’ll proceed to search out alternatives.
So having a look at our targets for the week, we crushed it in runs scored as soon as once more coming in at +12. That now provides us an insane cushion of +34 on the season within the class. To place that into perspective, that ranks sixteenth out of 855 groups within the competitors.
We hit our goal in house runs as soon as once more at +1.6, although we’re nonetheless 12 homers behind the quantity general on the season. Simply must preserve chipping away there. We simply missed our RBI objective, coming in at -1. On the season the deficit there’s -35 and may nonetheless be our concentrate on offense.
After crushing our stolen base objectives the previous few weeks, we got here in means brief at -4.7 this week. That leaves us with a cushion of simply +1 within the class going ahead.
What was very nice this week was to see the .278 common over a full praise of at-bats. We’re nonetheless behind the goal quantity general, however it’s in our sights now.
Pitching Overview
Ultimately variance has to swing the opposite means by way of wins, proper? Sadly, this wasn’t the week for it.
We went into the week with three pitchers lined as much as begin twice, and we rolled out an additional starter as an alternative of Josh Hader which gave us a complete of 10 begins for the week. Working on the low finish of expectations you’d count on three wins provided that workload.
Two of these three doubles took the hill on Monday night time. James Paxton delivered his third straight robust begin for us, hurling 5 shutout innings with a 1.20 WHIP and 6 strikeouts. The issue is that the Dodgers’ vaunted offense couldn’t scratch out a single run of assist for him of their first six innings. Ultimately they scored within the seventh and went on to win 3-0, however that was too late to earn Paxton a well-deserved victory.
Luis Medina wasn’t pretty much as good in his first begin of the week, giving up three earned runs on six walks+hits in simply three innings of labor. He did contribute 4 strikeouts, however that didn’t save the disastrous outing.
We additionally notched our first save of the week on Monday night time as Trevor Megill labored one other scoreless body. That man has been absolute cash for us because the second we picked him up for $14 in FAAB.
Our final double, Kyle Hendricks, took the mound on Tuesday night time. He delivered one other robust begin, giving up simply two runs on six walks+hits over seven innings in opposition to the Giants, chipping in 4 strikeouts for good measure. It wasn’t sufficient to earn a victory although.
Heading into Wednesday with zero wins on the week wasn’t preferrred, however we had three starters set to take the hill and I attempted to stay upbeat and optimistic. Ryan Pepiot pitched within the first sport of the day and pitched a whale of a ballgame. He allowed only one run on three walks+hits over 5 1/3 innings whereas racking up eight strikeouts. He entered the sixth inning with a 1-0 lead, then exited after issuing a one-out stroll. Three batters later, there was a run charged to his ledger and the Rays’ lead – and Pepiot’s shot at a win – have been gone.
To not fear although, because the universe tried to proper itself. Megill took the mound for the Brewers within the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon, working a scoreless high half of the inning. The Brewers then put runners on the corners with just one out within the house half of the body, needing simply to push that run throughout for Megill to vulture a win. Sadly, neither William Contreras or Willy Adames may get the job achieved. The Brewers walked it off the next inning as an alternative.
Kutter Crawford began out his night time effectively, with a pair of strikeouts over 1 1/3 scoreless innings in opposition to the Blue Jays. There was optimism too with Yariel Rodriguez on the hill for the Jays that the Purple Sox’ offense would rating some runs and provides him a pleasant shot at a win. Then the rains got here and washed that sport out, costing us innings, strikeouts and a shot at a victory. Enjoyable instances.
Erick Fedde had a tricky job having to tackle the Dodgers on Wednesday night time, and it was all downhill after a leadoff homer from Shohei Ohtani. He by no means had a shot at a win in that one because the White Sox didn’t rating for him, however he salvaged his night time considerably – giving up 4 runs on simply six walks+hits over six innings with 5 punchouts.
Lastly on Thursday night time, we bought off the schneid. Workers ace Corbin Burnes got here to the rescue, permitting only one run with a 1.29 WHIP over seven innings whereas hanging out 5 in a victory over the Rangers.
It took till Friday night time to generate one other save alternative, however as soon as once more it was Megill coming by way of with flying colours, working an ideal ninth inning to protect a two-run benefit there. He has now tallied 17 saves on the yr.
Via Friday we had actually achieved some heavy lifting regardless of the shortage of wins, with an ERA within the low 2.00’s and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Simply wanted to land some wins out of our three begins on Sunday.
Or not. As an alternative, we determined to explode the entire progress that we had made in our ratios over the previous couple of weeks. Kyle Hendricks was an absolute catastrophe in his second begin of the week. He cruised by way of the primary three innings unscathed, then served up seven runs to the Brewers within the fourth inning.
If that wasn’t dangerous sufficient although, we lastly bought the dangerous model of James Paxton. It took 4 begins for it to return out, however woof. He gave up 9 runs on 12 hits and a pair of walks over 4 innings in opposition to the Giants to utterly torpedo each of our ratios and price us seven league factors in at some point. Yikes.
Medina was truly good within the second half of his double, permitting only one run on seven walks+hits over six innings with 5 strikeouts, however he too was denied a victory.
Total, you add all of it up and it seems to be like crimson throughout the board. We missed all 5 of our pitching targets on the week – most of them badly – and are crimson in all the pieces on the season as effectively.
The strikeout goal we completed at -5.3 for the week and at the moment are 18 behind the quantity on the season. That’s not a straightforward feat when we’ve been streaming as many double begins as we are able to discover. You’d assume that may assist the trigger in wins additionally, however it’s an absolute nightmare at this level. We have been -2.9 on the week once more and at the moment are 15 wins behind the quantity on the season. Six and 7 win weeks aren’t even going to assist us climb out of this mess anymore.
Megill picked up two saves on the week, however we bought zero from Diaz and left one from Hader on the bench to complete -1.3 on the week. Once more, we’ve rolled out three closers for many of the season and are nonetheless -2 in saves general on the yr. Not preferrred.
We had made large strides in each ratio classes this week earlier than Sunday’s disastrous outings. It’s going to take a very long time to get them again to the place they have been.
FAAB Plan
FAAB this week presents considerably of an fascinating problem for me. Whereas I’m all the time cognizant of what’s happening and replace issues all through the week, many of the work that I usually do on FAAB is reserved for Sunday afternoon/night main as much as the deadline at 10PM. The issue with that this week, is that the spouse and I are taking our two oldest sons to their first live performance on Sunday night time. The present begins at 7 PM and is absolutely going to impede my means to remain on high of any final minute data and tinker with bids because the deadline approaches.
Let’s attempt to begin the place we all the time do although, potential drops. No matter how he performs in Sunday’s begin, Luis Medina seems to be like a straightforward drop for us on the pitching aspect. Kyle Hendricks isn’t as clear-cut. If he pitches effectively in his second begin on Sunday, he may wind up being a maintain – not less than for a few weeks. If we’re inserting Hader again into the lineup subsequent week, then we solely want to choose up one pitcher to start out subsequent week – assuming that we’re high-quality rolling out everybody else that we at present have.
On the hitting aspect, it’s honest to say {that a} mistake has been made on Tyler Black. I bought excited final week when he began 4 straight video games after being known as up by the Brewers, however he hasn’t began one other sport since for the Brewers and didn’t take a single at-bat this week till he pinch-hit within the ninth inning on Saturday. The issue is that the Brewers get 4 video games at Coors Discipline to start subsequent week, with three of these coming in opposition to weak RHP. He’s in all probability a drop, until we get some form of phrase from Pat Murphy on how he intends to make use of Black subsequent week.
There are additionally a few outfielders on the bench that I’m contemplating making an attempt to improve. Jo Adell is mired in a significant droop in the mean time and may’t actually be used proper now. He nonetheless has that dazzling mix of energy and pace, however the batting common is changing into an actual concern and he’s not offering something in the mean time. The opposite is Jake Fraley. He solely performs in opposition to RHP (more often than not) and even though he hits in the course of the Reds’ lineup when he does play he in some way solely has one homer and 9 RBI on the season. That’s pitiful. He has stolen 11 bases and hit for a pleasant common, which helps, however is it sufficient? Each of them are on the perimeter for me relying on what’s accessible as a possible improve.
So far as what’s on the market, there’s nothing too thrilling this week. If we’re in search of potential two-steps on the pitching aspect we’d be fishing in a pool that incorporates Hayden Wesneski (vs. Phillies, at Angels), Carlos Carrasco (vs. White Sox, vs. Giants), Michael Mercado (at Cubs, at Braves) and Vallente Bellozo (vs. Purple Sox, vs. White Sox). These are essentially the most interesting choices of the bunch. I truly sort of like Carrasco, have all the time had a delicate spot for him, and by way of wins he’s in all probability the almost definitely of the bunch to get one.
So far as single begins or potential stashes go, Davis Daniel joined the Angels’ rotation and threw a gem in opposition to the lowly Tigers. He will get the Athletics this week after which probably two begins the next week. Previous buddy Colin Rea continues to pitch effectively. He will get the Rockies at Coors subsequent week after which strains up for a pleasant double (vs. Pirates and vs. Nationals) within the remaining interval of the primary half). David Festa is intriguing, he will get the Tigers this week and would double the next week, however he in all probability falls outdoors of our funds. If we’re stashes, it’s Clarke Schmidt or Eduardo Rodriguez.
On the hitting aspect, Noelvi Marte is the clear prize accessible, however isn’t somebody that we’ve sufficient FAAB to battle for. Andrew McCutchen has been barrelling up the ball with regularity, however continues to get ignored for fantasy functions. He may make for a pleasant addition. Similar together with his teammate, Rowdy Tellez, who has been killing it for the previous month or so. Leody Taveras may add some pace, Luis Matos is again with the Giants and crushed a pair of homers this week, Jeff McNeil’s bat has began to indicate indicators of life once more. If we’re stashes on offense, perhaps Jordan Walker or Parker Meadows make some sense.
Nonetheless making an attempt to get a way of what number of drops we’re going to have, in all probability gained’t have it settled till simply earlier than the deadline whereas maneuvering issues round on my telephone within the seats at Little Caesars Enviornment.
FAAB Overview
Alright, we’re again from the AJR live performance and have lastly cooled down in regards to the season-destroying blowups from Hendricks and Paxton on Sunday afternoon. Let’s check out the FAAB winners and see what (if something) we have been in a position to accomplish.
As anticipated, we couldn’t get anyplace shut on Noelvi Marte and it seems that the wealthy get richer as the highest staff within the league snagged him for $128 ($121). That stings.
David Festa was the following title up at $33 ($28). He’s one other participant we had curiosity in, however nowhere shut on value. Similar could be mentioned for Leody Taveras at $24 ($15).
We had conditionals in on Hector Neris even though we didn’t actually need saves, however $16 ($12) is a cheaper price than I anticipated him to go for.
The subsequent three gamers I didn’t actually have a lot curiosity on this week, so I don’t really feel like I missed a lot on Richie Palacios ($15 to $3), Jhonkensy Noel ($13 to $11) or Kody Clemens ($11 to $2).
Davis Daniel was comparatively excessive up on my pitching wishlist, however I couldn’t get to $11 ($8). Albert Suarez was additional down the pitching bid lists, however nonetheless not in play for us at $11 ($5). Edward Cabrera ($11 unopposed) was not on my radar in any respect.
Daniel Schneemann is a participant I’ve checked out a number of instances the final couple of weeks however couldn’t pull the set off on, he went elsewhere for $10 ($7). Andrew McCutchen is a participant that I had severe curiosity on this week, and it hurts to be the runner-up on that one ($7 to $4).
We went as much as $6 on Hayden Wesneski and missed out by a greenback to a pair of $7 bids. We additionally had severe curiosity in Colin Rea and have been the runner-up there ($7 to $3). Similar for Luis Matos at $7 ($4). Save your FAAB early within the season folks, as you possibly can see the consequences we’re experiencing these previous few weeks.
Essentially the most brutal blow got here as we watched our high pitching goal, Carlos Carrasco, go to Phil Dussault for $7 ($6). That one critically stings. We’re truthfully to date down the checklist now I do not know what we’re going to get, however know that it’ll in all probability be unopposed and an overpay on our finish. Fantastic.
Properly, I used to be mistaken on the unopposed half not less than, as we snag our first participant, Michael Mercado for $6 ($1). Medina was the drop on that one. It’s irritating although, as had we gotten Carrasco or Wesneski, we additionally would have landed Mercado however at a a lot cheaper price on one other bid checklist.
We lose out on Gavin Sheets with one other runner-up bid at $5 ($3). We do add a second terribly sketchy double in Valente Bellozo for $3 ($1) with Hendricks because the drop. Our high hitting add winds up being Trent Grisham for $2 unopposed with Tyler Black because the drop.
Moreover, we picked up Rowdy Tellez for $1 whereas kicking Jo Adell to the curb. Had issues gone our means on both of the shut bids on Wesneski or Carrasco, then we additionally would have landed a 3rd pitcher (nonetheless Mercado and Bellozo however each at decrease costs) with Paxton because the drop. As an alternative, we now might must roll him out in opposition to the Brewers subsequent week. We’ll see.
Potential fascinating drops from across the league? Cal Quantrill, Ty France, Dylan Moore, Jorge Mateo, Brandon Drury. Nothing tremendous thrilling.
A disappointing and irritating finish to a disappointing and irritating week.
Wanting Forward
Let’s preserve it on the pitching aspect right here since that appears to be the bane of my existence.
Begins are king and we want them to battle the uphill battle in wins. We’re to date behind within the class there’s not a lot else we are able to do at this level. Final week we had 10 begins and got here away with one victory when the expectation ought to have been not less than three.
With the 2 FAAB doubles that we picked up (Mercado and Bellozo), we’ve 4 doubles lined up for this week as Crawford and Fedde additionally do the consideration. Corbin Burnes begins each week for us and is an computerized. That’s often the case for Ryan Pepiot as effectively, and a matchup in opposition to the Royals in Kansas Metropolis isn’t going to scare us away.
Which means the ultimate spot resolution comes all the way down to utilizing Paxton in opposition to at house in opposition to Bryse Wilson and the Brewers, or to easily play all three closers. 4 instances this season Paxton has given up 4 earned runs or extra, together with Sunday’s abomination. All 4 of these begins have been on the highway. After every of his first three disasters, he was glorious his subsequent day trip, permitting a complete of 1 run over 14 2/3 innings mixed. If the Dodgers belief him sufficient to throw him on the market, then he’s nonetheless a good wager to earn a win at house.
Which means we sit a more in-depth. Hader and Megill every get seven-game weeks whereas Diaz will get six. Three of these are in opposition to the Tigers over the weekend although and certainly he’ll get a save or two there. I may actually go both means on this one. We may additionally decide to take a seat Bellozo and play Diaz and Paxton, however that may convey us again all the way down to 9 begins on the week, plus Bellozo takes on Kutter Crawford in Monday’s begin which provides some win fairness for us.
I’m actually torn on that one. We’ll see.
To the offense, each Contreras brothers, Goldschmidt, Rengifo, Tovar, Ramirez, IKF and Turner are set within the infield – although Rengifo or IKF may transfer to the outfield if we needed to play different infield choices. O’Neill, Duran, Arozarena and Profar are set within the outfield, presuming they’re all of their respective lineups on Tuesday.
That leaves one outfield spot and one utility spot. Given the pliability of Rengifo and IKF, meaning any two of the next choices:
Kepler (three vs. Tigers, one LHP, so possible performs two)
Fry (three vs. White Sox, all RHP, in all probability performs two)
Tellez (three vs. Cardinals, all RHP, possible performs three)
Miguel Rojas (three vs. D’Backs, two RHP, in all probability performs three)
Fraley (three at Yankees, two RHP, in all probability performs two)
Grisham (three vs. Reds, one LHP, possible performs two)
If we’re centered solely on who will play essentially the most, it’s in all probability Tellez and Rojas. If we’re latest productiveness, it’s in all probability nonetheless Tellez for a type of spots. Needing RBI, Fry may win out for that second spot. Loads will rely upon how lineups shake out on Tuesday.
The place we Stand
Final week we climbed as much as 101.5 factors within the league standings. That left us in third place, 4 factors behind Gill in second and 20.5 behind Benger on the high. Previous to Sunday’s debacle, we had been hovering between 103 and 106 league factors on the week and poised to make a severe run. As an alternative, we limp to the end line for Week 14 at 97 league factors. That places us 22.5 behind Benger on the high, 15 behind Gill for second and 10 forward of fourth place.
We additionally completed final week in ninety fifth place out of 855 groups within the general standings and in twentieth place within the CLQ standings. Previous to the Sunday debacle, we had been as much as 73rd within the general standings and sixteenth within the CLQ. As an alternative, we end the week at 117th place within the general and twenty fourth within the CLQ.
I do know that we’ve had dangerous days and dangerous weeks like this prior to now and clawed our means again. I do know that it’s attainable to do it once more. I had simply been having such good emotions all through this week and had a lot optimism that we may rating a win or two from Sunday’s begins and actually have our season begin to take off. As an alternative, we’re proper again to the grind with the general and the highest spot in our league trying like a pipe dream as soon as extra.
As all the time, I’d love to listen to your suggestions on what you consider the article, the staff, my resolution making, the emotional roller-coaster, and so forth. In the event you’d like extra insights into the CLQ or why these different two groups are struggling to maintain us going there, let me know. Those who have reached out to date, I can’t let you know how a lot it’s been appreciated. This has in all probability been my favourite column to jot down within the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Simply drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I’d be completely satisfied to debate.
