Puka Nacua is the dream — a participant going undrafted (or basically undrafted) and ending as WR4. For those who have been the good one to draft him or the fortunate one to land him on waivers, Nacua alone was in all probability sufficient to no less than get you into the fantasy soccer playoffs if the remainder of your roster was even mildly competent.
It’s the dream — however usually talking, it’s additionally the fantasy.
The fantasy world stumbles throughout large risers like that now and again, particular person fantasy managers much more not often. Extra frequent is the participant who makes a small bounce. The participant drafted tenth at his place who finishes second. The participant going as an end-of-the-list starter who turns into a weekly must-start. The bench participant who sneaks his manner into weekly consideration.
And for fantasy managers, these are crucial as effectively. Assuming you might be getting the vast majority of your roster at or near worth, the gamers who stand up a tier or two within the season are those who can get you a title.
In order that’s what we’re on the lookout for now. We’re not on the lookout for gamers up and down the draft board who might be Puka Nacua. We’re on the lookout for those who’re the most effective candidates to stand up a tier. A back-end top-10 who might be No. 1. A second-tier starter who generally is a lock-it-in man. A bench participant who can begin. The risers who could make your season.
Thus far we now have tackled the quarterback and working again positions.
In the present day: Huge receivers
Potential WR1 Finisher
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Third-year breakouts are pretty frequent in soccer as gamers acclimate to the NFL and be taught to win at a better degree. One participant poised to take a large leap of their third season in 2024 is Atlanta’s Drake London.
Not solely will London be getting an improve at quarterback in veteran Kirk Cousins, however he can even discover himself transitioning from Arthur Smith’s run-centric offense to an offense helmed by former Rams go sport coordinator and quarterbacks coach Zac Robinson. Whereas Robinson doesn’t have expertise calling performs as an offensive coordinator, he nonetheless had a hand in turning the Rams into one of many extra profitable passing groups within the NFL over the previous two seasons.
London has proven flashes of being a superb extensive receiver over the past two years, however he has been hampered by poor quarterback play when he’s had alternatives to make performs. Solely 73.4% of London’s targets have been deemed catchable from Desmond Ridder in 2023. Simply 5.8% of Kirk Cousins’ passing makes an attempt have been uncatchable throughout his restricted 2023 season. Regardless of London being the prototypical purple zone weapon resulting from his measurement (6’4”, 213 kilos), London earned simply six finish zone targets in 2023. The veteran receiver had a good 1.98 yards per route run in 2023 however earned a goal on simply 24% of his routes.
In 2024, London should compete with Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney for targets in a new-look Falcons offense. He may have a chance to see his goal share develop with extra go makes an attempt. We now have seen London earn a dominant goal share within the NFL (29.4% goal share as a rookie) and have seen him produce robust weekly seasons over his first two years within the league.
London’s ADP has climbed significantly this offseason and fantasy managers might want to wager on environmental modifications round London leading to him ascending to prime extensive receiver standing. Nevertheless, we now have by no means seen London perform in an offense with good playcalling and powerful quarterback play.
Potential Prime-12 Finishers
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
LANDOVER, MD – NOVEMBER 17: Washington Huge Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up area throughout a NFL sport between Washington and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Discipline, in Landover, Maryland. (Photograph by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)
Veteran receiver Terry McLaurin has been the definition of strong for his complete NFL profession. McLaurin has by no means completed with lower than 12.0 fantasy factors per sport, nor has he completed with greater than 15.0. His extensive receiver finishes all through his profession vary from the WR20 (2020) to the WR34 (2023). He has 4 straight seasons with no less than 120 targets and 1,000 receiving yards however has by no means been capable of match his rookie season landing whole (7).
McLaurin struggled via unhealthy quarterback play inside a nasty offense that wished to play sluggish in 2023. The Commanders have been 18th in tempo of play in 2023, however nonetheless discovered a strategy to end tied for first in passing makes an attempt per sport (37.4). Regardless of the excessive passing quantity, McLaurin commanded only a 21.6% goal share competing with Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson for touches. McLaurin was closely utilized on vertical routes (28 deep targets, eighth most in 2023), however simply 65.4% of his passes have been deemed catchable.
McLaurin received’t have to compete with Curtis Samuel for targets in 2023, which implies that he ought to see his goal share enhance. In fact (and much more importantly), he’ll profit not solely from a quarterback improve (rookie Jayden Daniels) but in addition from an offensive coordinator improve (Kliff Kingsbury). Daniels is coming off a season the place he was one of the correct quarterbacks in faculty soccer, finishing 72.2% of his passes within the SEC. Daniels is a prolific deep passer however was good in all sections of the sphere in 2023.
Extra importantly, McLaurin will likely be enjoying in a fast-paced offense that can depend on unfold ideas and RPO passing. Throughout his time as Arizona’s head coach, Kingsbury routinely had a top-three offense when it comes to tempo. Kingsbury additionally utilized RPO ideas for cell quarterbacks, which is a one-read passing try designed to go to the staff’s greatest receiver (have a look at Michael Pittman’s goal enhance in 2023 as a comparable). We now have seen McLaurin be each productive and environment friendly all through his profession, however 2024 would be the first likelihood he can do each in the identical season.
Receiving extra correct targets will likely be massive for McLaurin in 2024, however we must also see his goal share climb with out one other confirmed receiver to take targets away from them. It isn’t exterior the realm of risk we see McLaurin earn 150-plus targets in 2024. If that occurs, he has the makings of a top-12 extensive receiver in fantasy.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens has been set as much as have a monster 2024 season. The Steelers traded away longtime goal earner Diontae Johnson throughout the offseason and introduced in two quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) who’re upgrades over Kenny Pickett. The hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator isn’t nice, however he’s confirmed to be a greater offensive coordinator than head coach throughout his profession.
Pickens made essentially the most of a nasty state of affairs in 2023, ending with 106 targets, 63 receptions, 1,140 yards and 5 touchdowns in his second season. The second-year receiver struggled to earn targets when sharing the sphere with Diontae Johnson in a low-volume passing offense, however the superior metrics recommend that he has the instruments to be a top-end extensive receiver. Pickens completed twenty first amongst extensive receivers in yards per route run (2.25) and fourth in yards per goal (10.86) amongst gamers with no less than 50 targets in 2023. Fantasy managers additionally received a glimpse of Pickens’ potential working as the highest extensive receiver in an offense.
Pickens noticed his fantasy manufacturing enhance by 5 factors in full-point and half-point PPR in his 4 video games with out Diontae Johnson in 2023. From Week 2 via Week 5, Pickens posted a top-15 mark in air yards share (50.1%), goal share (27.1%), yards per route run (3.00) and receiving yards (357). Pickens had all of the makings of a WR1 throughout his time with out Johnson. Now we are going to see that for a full season with solely a rookie (Roman Wilson) being added to exchange Johnson’s manufacturing.
For as a lot criticism as Arthur Smith received for his participant utilization with the Falcons, he has proven the flexibility to provide a top-12 extensive receiver in his passing offense. In 2020 with the Titans, A.J. Brown completed because the WR5 in fantasy factors per sport (15.2) with 106 targets, 70 receptions, 1,075 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Like Pickens, Brown was working in an offense that didn’t characteristic a significant secondary receiving possibility that season.
Pickens has the dimensions and athleticism to determine himself as the subsequent dominant receiver within the NFL. He’ll end as a top-12 extensive receiver in 2024 because of his skills, his improved staff state of affairs and the shortage of goal competitors surrounding him.
Non-Starters Who Can Begin
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Payments
Buffalo’s passing assault will look very totally different in 2024 after the staff determined to commerce away Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and let Gabe Davis (81 targets) stroll in free company. Fantasy managers have acted accordingly, pumping up Dalton Kincaid (TE5, ADP 53) and rookie receiver Keon Coleman (WR44, ADP 71) in early drafts. Free agent acquisition Curtis Samuel (WR50, ADP 92) can also be a top-100 choose, accessible effectively behind Kincaid and Coleman. That could possibly be a mistake in fantasy.
Samuel is coming off two robust seasons with the Washington Commanders. During the last two seasons, the veteran averaged 91.5 targets, 63 receptions, 634.5 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns per season. The veteran is primarily a slot receiver (67.3% slot price in 2023) however does have the flexibility to play exterior. It additionally helps that Buffalo’s offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) has proven the flexibility to get essentially the most out of Curtis Samuel throughout their time collectively in Carolina.
Samuel had one of the productive seasons of his profession in Joe Brady’s offense in 2020, ending with career-highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (851) whereas competing for targets with D.J. Moore and Robbie Chosen (Anderson). Samuel was additionally utilized as a runner, ending with 41 carries for 200 yards and two touchdowns. If Samuel can preserve that versatility in a much more ambiguous passing assault, he could possibly be the best receiver in Buffalo.
Fantasy managers wish to have a bit of Buffalo’s offense given their tempo of play and the passing acumen of Josh Allen. Not solely is Samuel one of the fairly priced choices, however he additionally has the prospect to complete because the top-scoring receiver on this passing assault.
Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
Many fantasy managers aren’t enthusiastic concerning the Patriots’ passing assault, which makes all of their gamers a unbelievable worth. One extensive receiver who can have an effect in fantasy in 2024 is second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk.
Polk had his greatest season in 2023, setting career-highs in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,159) and touchdowns (9) whereas working as a complement to Rome Odunze in Washington’s explosive passing assault. He has good measurement (6-foot-1 and 203 kilos) and pace (4.52 40-yard sprint), which provides him the flexibility to line up all around the offensive formation. The rookie entered the draft course of as a Day 2 choose, however many have been shocked to see him taken with the thirty seventh total number of the draft. New England will hope that Polk and rookie quarterback Drake Maye can set up rapport early and stabilize their passing assault.
One of many causes to focus on Polk in fantasy (except for his WR66, ADP 142 price ticket) is the easy indisputable fact that there received’t be a lot competitors for targets for the rookie. Two of the Patriots’ prime three goal earners return in 2023 in DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry, however neither participant had greater than 80 targets or 50 receptions. The Patriots additionally return Kendrick Bourne and Juju Smith-Schuster, however Bourne is coming off an ACL tear and Smith-Schuster is a shell of his former self. It wouldn’t be stunning for Polk to earn the WR1 function with New England from the bounce given his capability to play on the skin.
The Patriots can even have extra stability on offense in 2024. Each Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett are higher choices than Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Moreover, the Patriots are making the controversial transfer of getting an offensive coach name offensive performs, with Alex Van Pelt becoming a member of the staff after being with the Cleveland Browns. The passing assault needs to be higher, and whereas we don’t count on New England’s offense to be good, there will likely be fantasy relevance on this staff.
