Again earlier than superior metrics had been a factor, we used to take a look at yards, touchdowns, and fantasy factors to find out a participant’s worth. It’s way more nuanced immediately, thanks partially to quite a few corporations which have given life to superior information. A kind of superior metrics is PlayerProfilers’ Juke Fee, which is basically a measure of working again elusiveness. Juke Fee is calculated by dividing the variety of damaged, missed, and prevented tackles by whole touches (carries + receptions).
Whereas not an ideal science, this metric will help decide who is likely to be a bust and who is likely to be a sleeper for the upcoming season. Some gamers may need had a career-low in Juke Fee however had been capable of overcome their lack of elusiveness with a heavy workload. Others may not have produced a ton of fantasy factors, however that they had a really excessive Juke Fee and showcased a degree of elusiveness that would earn them extra alternatives sooner or later.
This text takes a have a look at working again elusiveness from a season in the past to uncover some potential busts and sleepers for the upcoming season. Issues can change, however bear in mind, working backs do have a shorter shelf-life than a variety of different talent positions on offense. Whereas a number of inputs go right into a participant’s output, Juke Fee will help paint a strong image. Listed here are two busts and two sleepers for the 2024 season.
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2024 RB Busts – Elusiveness
Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers
After 5 seasons with the Raiders, Josh Jacobs now finds himself in Inexperienced Bay after signing a four-year, $48M contract within the offseason. On paper, his contract appears massive for a working again in immediately’s NFL, however in actuality, he was assured simply $12.5M. That’s simply $2M extra assured than Tony Pollard acquired from the Titans. The Packers additionally used premium draft capital on a working again this yr. They took USC’s MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th general choose within the Draft. That was the 4th working again off the board this season. Jacobs continues to be the RB1 in Inexperienced Bay, however Lloyd isn’t going to be red-shirted his rookie season both.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether or not MarShawn Lloyd will see restricted motion his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:
“No, I want to get him on the market as a lot as potential. He’s received a talent set that’s just a little bit totally different than AJ’s, so far as his pace… It’ll be good to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024
However totally different from years previous, Jacobs isn’t any positive factor to pop in 2024 given his lack of elusiveness in 2023. He registered only a 13.3% Juke Fee final season. In his 4 seasons previous to 2023, Jacobs by no means registered a Juke Fee lower than 27.5%. He handled some accidents final season, however that sort of dropoff in elusiveness is unprecedented. It’s very potential his heavy workload within the final two seasons caught as much as him.
Jacobs has had one of many heaviest workloads amongst all working backs within the final two seasons. His 17.3 weighted alternatives per sport in 2023 had been 4th behind Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and Alvin Kamara. Nevertheless, his lack of elusiveness in 2023 led to simply 13.9 fantasy factors per sport. Based on Ryan Heath, a big detrimental differential in weighted alternatives vs. fantasy factors per sport typically results in a discount in quantity the next season.
Primarily, there are a number of dings to Jacobs’ potential fantasy worth in 2024. First, there’s an opportunity he’s simply washed (given his 53rd-ranked Juke Fee in 2023). Second, Inexperienced Bay may drastically decrease his weighted alternatives. The latter appears extra possible, however the former shouldn’t be dominated out. Think about these two dangers when Jacobs within the 2nd and Third-round of fantasy drafts this season. Because of his excessive value, we may very properly be speaking about Jacobs as a bust in 2024.
James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments
After a rookie season the place he performed simply 25% of the snaps, James Cook dinner shouldered a lot of the load in his sophomore marketing campaign. He noticed a 55% snap share and 62% alternative share final season, which led to 13.7 PPR factors per sport. Nevertheless, with that elevated workload got here an exponential lower in his elusiveness. Cook dinner’s Juke Fee fell to simply 14.2% in 2023 in comparison with 27.7% as a rookie. That 14.2% ranked forty ninth amongst working backs final season and was much like guys like Javonte Williams, A.J. Dillon, and Ezekiel Elliott.
The lower in elusiveness isn’t essentially unusual for undersized working backs taking over a heavier workload. One thing comparable occurred with Pollard final season after Zeke left for New England. The distinction between Cook dinner and Pollard, nonetheless, is that Pollard nonetheless had the Eighth-most carries contained in the 5-yard line (13). Cook dinner, alternatively, had simply 4 goal-line carries. Objective-line carries result in touchdowns, and touchdowns result in fantasy factors. These high-value alternatives are all the things for working backs in fantasy soccer.
Enter Ray Davis, the Payments’ 4th spherical pick of Kentucky. Davis fills in each hole Buffalo is lacking with Cook dinner. At 5’8”, 220 lbs, his low middle of gravity makes him a troublesome sort out across the aim line. He’s received a nostril for the top zone, as evidenced by his 20 whole touchdowns final season. Davis additionally has the elusiveness that Cook dinner misplaced with a bigger workload final season. Right here’s what Dane Brugler needed to say concerning the Payments’ new working again:
Dane Brugler(@dpbrugler) on Payments 4th Spherical Decide Ray Davis
“Together with his fast reads and lateral agility, Davis will juke defenders out of their cleats utilizing dynamic plant-and-go cuts.”
“His efficiency towards Florida in 2023 is likely to be one of the best working again tape on this class.”… pic.twitter.com/DjgsAIOd8Y
— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) May 11, 2024
At present, Cook dinner is coming off the board round RB13. Regardless of enjoying all 17 video games and shouldering the load in 2023, Cook dinner completed as simply the RB19 on a per-game foundation. And that was enjoying alongside 33-year-old Latavius Murray somewhat than Ray Davis. Together with his elusiveness taking a significant hit with the elevated workload, don’t count on Buffalo so as to add a lot to Cook dinner’s plate in 2024. At RB13, Cook dinner’s price ticket is a troublesome tablet to swallow, given the holes in his sport.
2024 RB Sleepers – Elusiveness
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears isn’t the most important again and may not be capable of shoulder a full workload, however boy, is he elusive. As a rookie, he had the 4th-highest Juke Fee amongst working backs at 26.3%. And it wasn’t as if he didn’t play. Spears averaged 10 weighted alternatives per sport in 2023 on a 53% snap share. Jaleel McLaughlin, one other elusive rookie, averaged simply 6.0 weighted alternatives per sport final season. So Spears did it even with double-digit weighted alternatives.
Tyjae Spears goes 28 yards for the @Titans TD!
📺: #JAXvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/mJoCKcR788
— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Breaking tackles and making guys miss that’s simply what Tyjae did final season. And now, as an alternative of competing with Derrick Henry for touches out of the backfield, he’ll be competing with Pollard. Pollard is coming off a season wherein he noticed his effectivity take a nosedive. With out Zeke, he averaged a career-high 15.1 weighted alternatives. And because of this, he had a career-low 16.3% Juke Fee. Pollard simply isn’t constructed for a big workload.
That’s the place Spears enters the image. Even with a full 17 video games performed with King Henry, Spears nonetheless managed to see a 35% alternative share. That’s virtually assured to extend this season. It even began growing final season after the Titans’ Week 7 Bye. Earlier than the Bye, Spears averaged 7.7 touches per sport. After the Bye, that went as much as 9.6 per sport. From Week 13 on, he received 12.2 touches per sport and produced 12.6 PPR factors per sport. That was greater than Pollard’s 11.6 PPR factors per sport throughout that stretch.
On Underdog, Pollard at present has a mean draft place (ADP) of 94.0 (RB27), whereas Spears has an ADP of 120.2 as RB38. If final yr is any indication of future success and fantasy manufacturing, these ADPs ought to be flipped. In any case, Spears is trying like one of many prime working again sleepers this season based mostly on the elusiveness he confirmed as a younger rookie.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Imagine it or not, Jaylen Warren has been some of the elusive runners within the NFL within the final two seasons. He was signed by the Steelers within the 2022 offseason after being undrafted out of Oklahoma State. He performed sparingly as a rookie (25.4% alternative share), but confirmed a variety of promise on his touches. Warren was fifth amongst working backs in each Juke Fee (40%) and yards created per contact (3.82) that season.
He parlayed his rookie season into much more enjoying time in his second yr. Warren almost doubled his weighted alternatives, going from 6.1 per sport to 12.1 per sport. With that soar in work, one may need anticipated his elusiveness to dip. Nevertheless it didn’t. Actually, Warren led all backs in Juke Fee (31.9%) and was fifth in evaded tackles (67), Third in yards created per contact (4.65), and seventh in yards per contact (5.5). Simply have a look at how elusive this man is:
.@steelers @Nunless2 is particular… cant wait for the way he produces with this rebuilt offensive line..Anticipation is driving me loopy. #herewego #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/4lnWQy7WQj
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) May 22, 2024
Positive, he nonetheless has to fend off Najee Harris, however the former 1st-rounder has seen his weighted alternatives lower every of the final three seasons since coming into the league. He began as a bell-cow in 2021, averaging 19.5 weighted alternatives per sport. In 2022, that quantity dropped to 14.5, and in 2023, simply 12.5 weighted alternatives per sport.
Harris and Warren almost break up the workload in half final season, nevertheless it was Warren who had the sting in fantasy factors per alternative (0.88 vs. 0.67). Nevertheless, it was Harris who dominated touches within the crimson zone (47 vs. 24). With Arthur Smith employed as the brand new offensive coordinator, issues may definitely change in 2024. Heck, Brogan Noey of Steelers Nation even thinks it is sensible to begin the Jaylen Warren period now whereas Najee Harris continues to be on the roster. That manner, the Steelers have a backup plan for the 2024 season if Warren doesn’t plan out because the 1A.
Even with an early Underdog ADP of 90.7 (RB25), Warren continues to be being slept on. Don’t miss out!
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