Welcome again to The Reduce Listing for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season — July 15 by means of July 21. That is our weekly article gamers whom fantasy managers may be contemplating reducing from their groups and struggling gamers who want a more in-depth look. We’ll take a look at gamers who’re worthy of a drop, gamers who’re price monitoring for changing, and somebody on the recent seat who’s price holding on to… for now.
These of you skilled Reduce Listing readers will know I am a powerful advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A nasty week or two should not be a motive to push the panic button and dump somebody. With the arrival of the All-Star break, it’s the ultimate time to pause, mirror, and deal with what we’d like for a profitable finish to our fantasy seasons.
If there’s ever somebody you need me to check out, drop their identify on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you’ll be able to be part of by clicking right here), or attain out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and possibly you may see them included subsequent week. All stats and rostered charges (taken from Yahoo!) mirror when this piece was written.
You’ll want to test all of our fantasy baseball lineup instruments and weekly lineup sources:
Price Dropping and Changing?
Nolan Jones – 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies – 66% rostered
Jones being positioned on the IL for a second time with a again pressure makes this one a lot simpler. For now, in case you have area, place Jones in your IL. He missed greater than six weeks earlier this season but it surely stays to be seen how lengthy Jones will miss this time. The Rockies may discover one thing vital and shut him down for the yr. It would simply be a minor problem and with the All-Star break on the horizon, it made sense to place him on the IL.
Nolan Jones was scratched final night time and heads again to the injured record immediately with a decrease again pressure. Tanner Gordon was additionally optioned to AAA.
Sean Bouchard and Angel Chivilli have been recalled the change them #Rockies
— Luke Zahlmann (@lukezahlmann) July 13, 2024
Assuming it’s the latter and we see Jones once more in July, in case you are holding then he needs to be getting a brief leash. We have seen little or no positivity from Jones when he has performed. In 49 video games, he is received a .202/.311/.313 slash line with three homers, 14 RBI, 19 runs, and three steals. A far cry from his 20/20 season final yr in simply 106 video games. His anticipated stats aren’t significantly better so we will not label Jones as unfortunate.
Verdict: Final yr’s breakout was largely skills-supported so I am not keen to write down it off as an outlier simply but. Common readers will know my apprehension when again accidents are talked about. If Jones can return wholesome, we might even see one of the best of him. Nevertheless, that is an enormous if, particularly if that is an ongoing problem. Except you have got an empty IL spot and nobody else price stashing, I’ve no problem dropping Jones in something however dynasty or deep leagues.
David Fry – C/1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians – 61% rostered
Fry was one of many greatest tales in fantasy through the first two months of the season. By the tip of Could, he was hitting .352/.485/.629 and had picked up outfield and first base eligibility if he hadn’t had it already. The flexibility and quantity on the catcher place made Fry top-of-the-line choices on the place. Issues have since turned south and whereas I used to be wonderful working with Fry whereas he was sizzling, I am equally wonderful dropping him now.
Since June 1, Fry has hit .213/.272/.309 (103 plate appearances) and hasn’t homered. That is left him with eight dwelling runs, 33 RBI, 29 runs, and 4 stolen bases on the yr, together with a .282/.391/.470 slash line (72 video games). The primary motive why I did not consider that Fry was having a breakout as a 28-year-old was because of the truth his sizzling begin to the season got here from nowhere.
Fry was a profession .268/.348/.469 hitter within the Minors (439 video games). Good, however nothing that screams he’d be elite within the majors. On the Triple-A degree, Fry hit 22 dwelling runs in 167 video games. Once more, that is good however not eye-popping. Fry’s latest struggles have seen him lose a little bit of enjoying time. Whereas his versatility will hold him within the Guardians lineup, Fry is not doing sufficient to warrant being rostered a lot in fantasy leagues.
Verdict: Fry ranks because the eleventh catcher on Yahoo! this yr. Over the past 30 days, he ranks 79th on the place. There’s nonetheless sufficient juice within the bat to warrant rostering Fry in two catcher leagues or in leagues that depend OBP, given Fry’s 12.3% BB% (and 10.6% BB% within the minors). When you boarded the Fry hype practice within the early a part of the season, now could be the time to disembark and discover another person to take you to a fantasy championship.
Maintain For Now
Luis Gil – SP, New York Yankees – 86% rostered
Coming into June, Gil was arguably one of the best beginning pitcher in baseball. Three consecutive tough outings noticed fantasy managers lose religion within the Yankees teen. Gil had a pleasant bounce-back efficiency final Sunday, permitting only one earned run whereas hanging out 9 batters (6 2/3 IP). He adopted that up with one other excellent outing towards the Orioles yesterday. Gil allowed only one run over six innings (with seven strikeouts).
That has left Gil with a 10-5 W-L document, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 118 Ks (102 1/3 IP). Regardless of his strong outing final weekend, Gil nonetheless took the loss. That was his fourth straight loss. Yesterday was a much-needed win for Gil, the Yankees, and Gil’s fantasy managers. It ought to hopefully assist reassure fantasy managers that the three-game scuffle was only a blip and never an indication of issues to come back.
The truth is, we had been all the time going to see some regression in Gil’s numbers. After his 14th begin of the season, Gill had a 2.03 ERA. He additionally had a 3.81 xFIP and three.80 SIERA. Gil had a 14.90 ERA, 8.25 xFIP, and 6.74 SIERA throughout that tough three-game stretch. That was an overcorrection, however some regression in his ERA was inevitable. If we examine his ERA and xFIP all through the season, we are able to see that the distinction between them is narrowing.
Right here is the place issues will get troublesome for Gil’s fantasy managers. He is topped 100 innings this yr and it is arduous to see him getting many extra. Tommy John Surgical procedure (TJS) in 2022 meant Gil has solely pitched a complete of 29 2/3 innings over the earlier two seasons. Assuming the Yankees attain the playoffs, they may definitely need Gil pitching in some capability in October.
Whether or not which means a transfer to the bullpen, a “phantom IL” stint, or a demotion to Triple-A, we merely do not know at this level. If I had been to guess, the Yankees will wish to hold Gil within the 140-150 innings vary this yr. That does imply we may see round eight begins, which is why I am not dropping him proper now. Nevertheless, there’ll probably come a time when Gil is not a viable fantasy pitcher so be ready to switch him sooner or later this season.
Justin Verlander – SP, Houston Astros – 84% rostered
Verlander could also be at a special interval of his profession than Gil, however I am preaching the identical for him; maintain for now. He stays with out a timetable for a return from a neck damage and we could not see him once more till August. He is because of throw a bullpen session immediately which could present extra information. The excellent news is you could simply hold Verlander in your IL after which assess his efficiency when he returns. His numbers had been respectable earlier than the damage.
After 10 begins, Verlander has a 3-2 W-L document, 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 51 Ks (57.0 IP). We noticed a major decline in Verlander’s strikeout numbers final yr. That has carried into this yr together with his 21.3% Okay% being practically similar to 2023 (21.5% Okay%). Given he had TJS in 2020 and missed the whole 2021 season, it should not come as a shock {that a} pitcher now of their 40s has a diminishing strikeout fee.
My greater concern when Verlander returns is in his underlying numbers. His 4.91 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA trace at some ERA regression. Nevertheless, it was an analogous story final yr which by no means panned out as we could have thought. In 2023, Verlander had a 3.22 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, and 4.43 SIERA (162 1/3 IP). When successful the AL Cy Younger award in 2022, Verlander had a 1.75 ERA (175 IP). He additionally had a 3.23 xFIP and a 3.09 SIERA.
Verlander has proved he can outpitch his underlying numbers over a bigger pattern than the 57 innings he is managed this yr. And whereas Father Time stays undefeated, he could have to attend a little bit longer to win this battle. Assuming Verlander can return within the not-too-distant future, I might be trying to give him just a few begins earlier than I might think about dropping him. Any vital damage setback would make me change my method.
On the Sizzling Seat
Anthony Volpe – SS, New York Yankees – 92% rostered
It ought to come as no shock to fantasy managers that Volpe finds himself on the Sizzling Seat. It could be an overdue placement for Volpe given how a lot he is struggled recently. Volpe’s wonderful begin to the season noticed him inserted atop the Yankees lineup in April. Nevertheless, July has seen Volpe slip again right down to the underside half of the batting order. We are able to see why when his month-to-month numbers.
Month
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
SB
Okay%
BB%
wRC+
April
136
.271
.358
.398
3
7
19.9%
10.3%
121
Could
128
.293
.346
.466
3
4
21.1%
7.0%
130
June
126
.220
.238
.309
0
4
26.2%
2.4%
53
July
46
.116
.174
.163
0
0
13.0%
6.5%
-3
It was an analogous story final yr with Volpe working cold and warm for weeks at a time. Volpe’s finest month of the season was August when he hit .256/.333/.556, seven dwelling runs, and had a 142 wRC+. That was adopted by his worst month of the season when he hit .163/.226/.255 with a 33 wRC+ in September. Of Volpe’s 24 stolen bases final yr, 13 got here within the first two months of the season. So there’s additionally a priority that he runs much less because the season progresses.
That continues to be to be seen. What we do know from Volpe’s early main league profession is that his bat appears to be extraordinarily streaky. This chilly streak is one thing of an excessive although. Since June 20, Volpe has a .403 OPS. That is the second-worst of 173 certified hitters. Given his lack of ability to get on base, it will not shock anybody that Volpe would not have a stolen base in that interval both.
The one good factor is that Volpe will not see his enjoying time disappear. He is been top-of-the-line defensive shortstops, rating within the 99th percentile for Outs Above Common with 10. Solely Bobby Witt Jr. (14) has extra at shortstop. For fantasy managers, all which means is Volpe can be enjoying extra with out producing any worth in your groups.
Given what we noticed from Volpe final yr and the best way he began this season, it is troublesome to justify dropping Volpe. Nevertheless, he is not startable proper now. One of the best plan of action could be to maintain Volpe in your bench, which is probably going the place he is been lately. When he begins exhibiting indicators of life on the plate, slide him again into your lineups and hope you see a protracted interval of one of the best of Volpe.
Reader Requests
As in earlier years, we’re eager to listen to who you need us to investigate. If there’s anybody who you wish to embody right here on subsequent week’s Reduce Listing, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you may attain out to me on X and we’ll endeavor to cowl as many requests as we are able to every week.
Ezequiel Tovar – SS, Colorado Rockies – 80% rostered
Tovar’s requests are a little bit curious however he’s price as his state of affairs covers different gamers (Andres Gimenez springs to thoughts). If we take a look at Tovar’s numbers, they don’t seem to be astounding. He has 12 homers, 38 RBI, 44 runs, and 4 steals with a .269/.296/.441 slash line (94 video games). That is a 162-game tempo of 21 dwelling runs, 65 RBI, 76 runs, and 7 stolen bases. Similar to final yr with extra homers, fewer steals, and a greater slash line.
If we simply take a look at Yaho0!, Tovar was ranked 82nd amongst hitters coming into the season. He is at present ranked because the eightieth hitter. It is troublesome to justify dropping Tovar given he is performing virtually as anticipated, albeit with barely totally different numbers than projected. It is price Tovar’s splits. In contrast to a lot of his teammates, Tovar is performing higher on the highway than he’s at dwelling.
Break up
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
Okay%
BB%
wRC+
House
203
.263
.296
.395
3
30.5%
4.4%
64
Highway
211
.275
.295
.485
9
27.0%
1.9%
114
Regardless of the lackluster numbers at Coors Subject, I am not suggesting you bench Tovar at dwelling. His plate self-discipline is terrible, which suggests his worth is lessened in factors or OBP leagues. Tovar’s 3.1% BB% is within the second percentile and 28.7% Okay% is within the tenth percentile. Once more, this should not have come as a shock to anybody drafting him.
In commonplace leagues, Tovar is offering worth on his ADP so is not somebody I’d be dropping. He has commerce worth nonetheless on the very least. If you have not been pleased with Tovar’s performances, it is probably he was reached for in drafts or expectations had been too excessive. He was drafted as a strong center infield possibility and has carried out as such. If he can decide up the numbers at dwelling, Tovar may finish the season as a top-15 shortstop.
Dansby Swanson – SS, Chicago Cubs – 66% rostered
After three successive 20+ dwelling run seasons, that streak seems set to finish. Swanson will head into the All-Star break with a .215/.285/.354 slash line, 9 homers, 31 RBI, 37 runs, and 5 steals (86 video games). His slash line is ready to be a career-worst except he can flip issues round within the second half. Whereas I would not guess towards a greater second half, it is troublesome to see Swanson offering sufficient fantasy worth to warrant holding him.
If we glance again ultimately season, Swanson had a .225 batting common within the second half. Which means Swanson has a .220 batting common over his final 150 video games. Swanson’s .248 xBA (anticipated batting common) and .429 xSLG provide hope that his slash line can enhance within the second half. The issue is that his xBA ranks within the fortieth percentile and xSLG ranks within the sixtieth percentile. He’s solely hovering across the league averages.
Now for some excellent news. Swanson has seemingly woken up from his slumber on the plate. He is gone 8-for-18 in his final 5 video games. On Thursday, Swanson hit his first homer since June 19 and he is received 4 RBI and 5 runs since final Sunday. As we are able to see from his rolling wOBA, this week has seen Swanson creep above league common. We have seen one thing related already this yr so I am not ready to announce Swanson as being again.
When you’ve held Swanson thus far, it’s going to be prudent to provide him a bit extra time. Similar to I will not drop somebody for a nasty week, I will not use one good week to beat the drum for somebody as being price rostering. If Swanson can take this momentum into the remainder of the season, he needs to be a top-15 shortstop and have the ability to present worth as a center infielder. If he finishes July as he began it, I would not suppose too arduous about dropping him.
Ryan Jeffers – C, Minnesota Twins – 52% rostered
Jeffers was one of many hottest hitters within the early weeks of the season. On the finish of Could, Jeffers was sporting a .256/.345/.547 slash line with 12 homers, 36 RBI, 25 runs and two steals. Issues went decidedly south in June when he hit .161/.238/.232. His wRC+ dropped from 149 to 122 and Jeffers himself dropped down the batting order. The early indicators for July provide hope that he has turned the nook.
Jeffers has gone 8-for-26 in six video games with three extra-base hits. The regarding quantity is the seven video games he is performed. Christian Vazquez began July red-hot, homering twice in his first three video games this month. The schedule has performed an element in that however fantasy managers will wish to see extra enjoying time for Jeffers. He solely began yesterday as a consequence of Carlos Correa being a late scratch as a consequence of a heel damage.
Jeffers performed 26 video games in March/April and 25 video games in Could, then solely 16 video games in June throughout his struggles. If he continues to swing the bat effectively, that enjoying time ought to start to creep up once more. Accidents might even see DH alternatives develop into extra frequent too. Regardless, Jeffers is doing sufficient to warrant being rostered whereas he is hitting effectively. However one other stoop or continued diminished at-bats will make Jeffers replaceable in shallower leagues.
Obtain Our Free Information & Alerts Cell App
Like what you see? Obtain our up to date fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24×7 participant information, damage alerts, sleepers, prospects & extra. All free!
Extra Fantasy Baseball Recommendation
