Welcome again to The Reduce Record for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season — June 3 by way of June 9. That is our weekly article taking a look at gamers whom fantasy managers may be contemplating slicing from their groups and struggling gamers who want a more in-depth look. We’ll have a look at gamers who’re worthy of a drop, gamers who’re price monitoring for changing, and somebody on the recent seat who’s price holding on to… for now.
These of you skilled Reduce Record readers will know I am a robust advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A foul week or two should not be a motive to push the panic button and dump somebody. Because the season rolls on, there will probably be stronger instances to drop underperforming gamers.
If there’s ever somebody you need me to check out, drop their title on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you’ll be part of by clicking right here), or attain out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and possibly you may see them included subsequent week. All stats and rostered charges (taken from Yahoo!) mirror when this piece was written.
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Price Dropping and Changing?
Jordan Montgomery – SP, Arizona Diamondbacks – 77% rostered
Montgomery was poised to be droppable this week earlier than Friday’s outing. He was then hit arduous by the Mets and that eliminated any lingering doubts about whether or not or not Montgomery may be dropped. He is now sporting a 3-3 W-L file, 5.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 28 Ks. The choice to state Montgomery as droppable is not simply based mostly on Friday. He is been fairly dangerous all season.
We should always begin by saying Montgomery’s ERA is elevated. However, his 4.37 xFIP and 4.74 SIERA are nonetheless not spectacular. Neither is his .294 xBA (anticipated batting common), which is barely barely higher than the .302 batting common towards him. Montgomery does have a .340 BABIP. However that brings us to the opposite situation with him; the dearth of strikeouts.
Montgomery has a career-low 14.4% Okay%, which ranks within the eighth percentile. He did come into the season with a profession 22.5% Okay%. Even when he matched that, it solely ranks within the fiftieth percentile. With a excessive ERA, Montgomery would want to have a better-than-league-average strikeout price to offer fantasy worth.
After tonight’s recreation #Dbacks Jordan Montgomery has a 5.48 ERA in 8 begins, 44.1 IP (27 ER)
MLB Avg is 3.93
So as to get to league avg ERA Montgomery would want to common 6 IP / 2 ER over his subsequent 12 begins (72 IP, 24 ER) to get to three.95 ERA
Montgomery is paid $25M this yr
— Jack Sommers (@shoewizard59) June 1, 2024
In fact, Montgomery can level to extenuating circumstances for his struggles. He solely signed for the Diamondbacks two days earlier than Opening Day. After a promising first begin on April 19, issues have gone downhill. The unsettled offseason has doubtless performed an element. Montgomery’s sinker is averaging 91.6 mph (down 1.7 mph) and has a .376 xwOBA towards it. As his most used pitch (33.0%), that is a giant downside.
Verdict: It is troublesome to see Montgomery returning to fantasy relevancy this yr. Regardless of a powerful 3.20 ERA in 2023, he had a 4.01 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA. Whereas we must always see enhancements from Montgomery, a 4.20 ERA and 20.0% Okay% are about what we will realistically count on. That is not going to offer any fantasy worth. Even in deep leagues, he is solely a bench choice you begin when determined or towards the weakest offenses.
George Springer – OF, Toronto Blue Jays – 73% rostered
Regardless of his 20/20 season in 2023, there have been justifiable considerations about Springer coming into 2024. He had a career-low .732 OPS final yr and his 21 dwelling runs had been the fewest Springer had in a full season since 2016. Even with these considerations, 2024 has been fairly dreadful up to now. After 51 video games, he has 4 homers, 12 RBI, 24 runs, and 7 stolen bases with a .204/.300/.304 slash line.
Whereas consecutive 20+ stolen base seasons look doable, it is unlikely Springer will attain 20 homers. He is additionally acquired a 162-game tempo of 38 RBI. It is troublesome to see that depressing tempo maintained all through your complete season. Projections programs have Springer driving in ~45 runs over the rest of the season, so he is set to offer a disappointing complete.
The batting common must also enhance. Springer has a .255 xBA. That is far more much like the .262 batting common he had between 2021 and 2023. Springer has additionally been moved down the batting order. He scored 14 runs in 38 video games because the Blue Jays leadoff hitter. In an odd quirk, for the reason that transfer down the order, Springer has scored 10 runs in 11 video games.
Verdict: Hitting fifth or sixth within the order ought to harm Springer’s runs complete, though he is disproving that concept. However it ought to assist his paltry RBI complete. Springer is at present ranked one hundred and fifth amongst outfielders on Yahoo! Whereas I count on Springer’s numbers to enhance, it is robust to see him being a top-40 outfielder over the rest of 2024. If there’s somebody of enchantment on waivers, I might don’t have any situation slicing ties with the veteran in all however deep leagues.
Maintain For Now
Jordan Romano – RP, Toronto Blue Jays – 90% rostered
My one free rule with relievers is to not drop them so long as they’ve the nearer function. Regardless of Romano’s struggles, he would not seem to have misplaced the nearer gig. He is sporting a 1-2 W-L file, 6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13 Ks, and eight saves (13.2 IP). Regardless of his ugly ERA, Romano solely has one blown save on his ledger. That is doubtless why he is nonetheless closing video games in Toronto. That was till Friday after all. Extra on that later.
Simply because I am not dropping Romano but, doesn’t suggest I am not making ready to take action sooner or later. His 4.17 xFIP and three.73 SIERA trace at some misfortune for Romano this yr. However, only a few closers keep their jobs long-term with a ~4.00 ERA. Romano can also be hanging out batters at a career-low price. His 21.0% Okay% is down 8.9 share factors on his profession mark.
The principle situation appears to be Romano’s slider. It is getting hit more durable than ever and that is doubtless right down to the very fact it is getting much less horizontal motion than ever. Romano’s solely different pitch is a four-seam fastball. And when half of your arsenal is not working, you are in bother. After having a .338 SLG towards his slider final yr, this yr his slider has a .581 SLG towards it. Romano’s not been unfortunate with it both as evidenced by the .582 xSLG.
On Friday, the Blue Jays wanted 14 innings to beat the Pirates. Romano wasn’t one of many 5 relievers utilized by Toronto. We later came upon that Romano was unavailable because of elbow soreness. It is unclear whether or not or not he is been coping with this situation for some time. That might assist clarify why he is struggled up to now. He was then positioned on the 15-day IL, which at the very least means fantasy managers can stash him on their IL for now.
Though I might counsel holding on to Romano when you have a spare IL spot, there’s sufficient concern to consider that he would not maintain the nearer function after he returns. We additionally do not know the way lengthy the Blue Jays count on him to be out for. Yimi Garcia and Chad Inexperienced might simply tackle the nearer function so including both to interchange Romano could be my most well-liked plan.
There would not appear to be any structural harm to Romano’s elbow. Formally, he is on the IL with elbow irritation. So assuming Romano does return this yr, we will see how the bullpen works out earlier than dropping him. If issues change whereas he is out, like an anticipated prolonged keep on the IL, then that may alter our strategy.
Dansby Swanson – SS, Chicago Cubs – 84% rostered
If we have a look at Swanson’s numbers every year since 2021, it is truthful to say that 2022 seems like an outlier. His .277 batting common was by far his finest over a full season. His 18 stolen bases are as many as he had in 2021 and 2023 mixed. And his 116 wRC+ was a career-high. Due to that, we have to have a look at 2021 and 2023 as a extra reasonable information to what Swanson can produce.
Even after we do, 2024 seems like a disappointment. In 48 video games, Swanson has 5 homers, 15 RBI, 25 runs, and 4 stolen bases, together with a .208/.283/.339 slash line. If we have a look at Swanson’s batting common, it is properly under expectation. He hit .248/.311/.449 in 2021 and .244/.328/.416 in 2023. So his .239 xBA and .424 xSLG are each extra according to what Swanson is able to. It additionally highlights his misfortune up to now.
Swanson acquired off to a so-so begin, hitting .234/.303/.364 within the first month of the season. His April was higher than what he produced in Could when he hit .155/.234/.241. Nonetheless, it was a month that was disrupted because of a knee sprain. Swanson returned from the IL in little beneath two weeks and had gone 2-for-22 within the seven Could video games earlier than the IL stint. He is gone 8-for-39 since returning.
Swason’s lack of dwelling runs can also be troubling, lastly hitting his first homer since coming back from the IL on June 1. However, there’s additionally some constructive information on that entrance. It is truthful to say that Chicago may be fairly chilly within the early weeks of the season. Wrigley Area will get far more hitter-friendly in the summertime months. Given Swanson solely hit 5 of his 22 dwelling runs final yr earlier than June, I am optimistic he can nonetheless hit 20+ homers in 2024.
In consequence, I am giving Swanson the month of June earlier than I pull the plug. Hopefully, yesterday may help alleviate any considerations about him nonetheless affected by an injured knee. It may also ignite the same spell to final yr when Swanson hit .260/.327/.452 with eight homers throughout 38 video games in June and July.
On the Sizzling Seat
Nolan Arenado – 3B, St. Louis Cardinals – 94% rostered
Paul Goldschmidt has already featured in The Reduce Record this season. So it is about time the Cardinals’ different struggling infield veteran will get a glance. Whereas Goldschmidt’s bat has woken up during the last three weeks, Arenado’s has solely simply began to point out indicators of life. Arenado homered in consecutive video games this week, both aspect of a few days off.
That is left Arenado with a .252/.304/.371 slash line, 5 homers, 26 RBI, 22 runs, and no stolen bases (54 video games). Even after the 2 homers this week, it is solely sufficient to rank him twenty fifth amongst third basemen on Yahoo! A far cry from his ADP (~98) however it was significantly worse this time final week. Issues have gotten higher for Arenado in latest days. But when we zoom out, issues have been getting worse lately.
After becoming a member of St. Louis in 2021, Arenado has been exhibiting indicators of decline in latest occasions. The under desk exhibits his numbers since 2021. This yr’s numbers have been extrapolated over 150 video games as that is what Arenado has averaged per season since turning into a Cardinal.
Yr
Video games
HR
RBI
R
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
2021
157
34
105
81
2
.255
.312
.494
112
2022
148
30
103
73
5
.293
.358
.533
150
2023
144
26
93
71
3
.266
.315
.459
107
2024
150
14
72
61
0
.252
.304
.371
100
If that is how Arenado’s 2024 finally ends up, it will characterize his worst full season since his 2013 rookie marketing campaign. When you want a visible illustration of Arenado’s decline lately, under ought to assist. We will see from his Statcast profile during the last three seasons that Arenado has seen a drop off within the high quality of his contact. And in consequence, in his anticipated and precise numbers.
That is the primary yr we now have bat velocity information however rating within the twenty first percentile is not ultimate. We do not know if Arenado’s bat velocity has slowed in latest seasons so we will not put an excessive amount of emphasis on that. What we will see is how he is making softer contact and registering fewer barrels. Arenado has had a decrease xSLG than his precise slugging share in latest seasons so we should not count on his .371 SLG to drop additional. However it’s nonetheless disappointing.
Arenado ranks 104th out of the 155 certified hitters in SLG and tied 107th in wOBA (.305). He ranks because the one hundred and fortieth hitter on Yahoo! All of the numbers make Arenado rosterable, however barely. Two homers this week supply us hope that Arenado may be greater than barely rosterable over the rest of 2024. That is still to be seen and we doubtless want June to completely decide if that is the beginning of a renaissance or a false daybreak.
For now, I might maintain on to Arenado. That is additionally partly because of how skinny third base is in most leagues. It is extremely unlikely that he comes near offering worth on his ADP. However he is nonetheless doubtless a greater choice than anybody out there to you on waivers. He is set to be “effective” this yr. Not ultimate and if he is not “effective” in late June, then we have to rethink our choices.
Reader Requests
As in earlier years, we’re eager to listen to who you need us to investigate. If there’s anybody who you wish to embody right here on subsequent week’s Reduce Record, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you may attain out to me on X and we’ll endeavor to cowl as many requests as we will every week.
Pablo Lopez – SP, Minnesota Twins – 97% rostered
Like Mongomery, López pitched on Friday and cemented the emotions I had about him earlier than the beginning. López restricted the Astros to at least one run over seven innings whereas hanging out 9. That is left him with a 5-5 W-L file, 4.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 75 Ks (67.0 IP). A considerably uninspiring fantasy line, however there’s lots to love if we dig somewhat deeper.
Firstly, López has a 3.08 xFIP and three.01 SIERA. Among the many 82 certified starters, he has the Thirteenth-best xFIP and Eleventh-best SIERA. Among the many 112 pitchers to have confronted at the very least 200 batters, López’s 1.87 distinction between his ERA and xERA (2.97) is the third largest. He is merely been one of many unluckiest pitchers in baseball. His misfortune is regardless of placing up a career-low 4.0% BB%, which ranks within the 93rd percentile.
Early season points aren’t a brand new factor for López. After 12 begins final yr, he had a 4.54 ERA. López had a propensity for occurring an excellent run earlier than having a blow-up. He had a 2.27 ERA in begins 13 to 18, then gave up seven runs towards the A’s. López then had one other excellent run of six begins, with a complete 1.22 ERA. He then allowed 5 runs towards the Rangers. Blow-ups may be anticipated however Friday reminded us of his dominance when he is on type.
#Twins Pablo López had 11 out of his 12 four-seamer whiffs come within the higher third of the zone & above towards the Astros. That ties a season-high of 12 four-seam whiffs & the third time of 10+.
After adjustments within the breakers & changeup, it is cool to see his four-seam dominate. https://t.co/Lz06ff6Mc6 pic.twitter.com/2Boyt1ZIRf
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 1, 2024
Fantasy managers would have been involved that two of his blow-ups got here in back-to-back outings earlier than Friday. He now ranks tied-Twelfth in strikeouts. Assuming his ERA does begin dropping, López must be a top-20 beginning pitcher over the rest of 2024. If he has back-to-back dangerous outings to start June, then we might want to revisit issues. For now, López is extra of a “buy-low” candidate than a drop choice.
Randy Arozarena – OF, Tampa Bay Rays – 95% rostered
Arozarena featured within the Week 6 version of The Reduce Record. Again then, I discussed how he was probably the most requested participant within the early weeks. Two months into the season and that hasn’t modified. Arozarena remains to be closely requested so now appears nearly as good a time as any to examine again in with the struggling outfielder.
5 weeks in the past, I in contrast a few of Arozarena’s numbers from the earlier years. It is sensible to take action once more. The under desk exhibits the numbers we checked out in Week 6 and what they’re now. This offers us a greater concept of how Arozarena has carried out during the last 5 weeks and the place we’re with him now.
Yr
PA
AVG
BABIP
Okay%
HardHit%
Avg exit velo
xwOBACON
2021
604
.274
.363
28.1%
42.3%
89.9 mph
.375
2022
645
.263
.325
24.3%
41.0%
89.9 mph
.360
2023
654
.254
.310
23.9%
48.3%
91.7 mph
.403
Week 6
114
.154
.188
28.1%
40.3%
90.4 mph
.365
Week 11
235
.160
.186
28.9%
40.3%
90.5 mph
.347
As we will see, there’s been little or no change, however 5 weeks is not a lot time to make vital adjustments to your numbers. Arozarena’s common dash velocity has elevated from 27.7 ft/sec to twenty-eight.2 ft/sec. His high quality of contact numbers are virtually an identical. However his anticipated numbers have regressed. Arozarena had a .218 xBA and .369 xSLG 5 weeks in the past. Now, he has a .195 xBA and .350 xSLG.
The one factor that has stored Arozarena related is the counting stats he has been accumulating. He is acquired a 162-game tempo of 23 homers and 20 stolen bases. Nearly an identical to final season. Arozarena can also be certainly one of solely 15 gamers with at the very least eight homers and 7 stolen bases. He isn’t been helped by the Rays offense, which ranks tied-Twenty third in runs scored (230) resulting in solely 19 RBI and 25 runs. His struggles are a part of these points too.
5 weeks in the past I stated that I anticipated Arozarena’s numbers to select up. Whereas I nonetheless consider the identical, I say it with extra trepidation. We are going to nonetheless doubtless see a 20/20 season however most likely with a sub-.220 batting common. Until you are in a terrific place for dwelling runs and stolen bases, I might nonetheless look to carry Arozarena. His title alone nonetheless has some commerce worth too so if you wish to eliminate him, you need to have the ability to get somebody helpful in return.
Colton Cowser – OF, Baltimore Orioles – 50% rostered
Cowser acquired off to a red-hot begin to start 2024. By the top of April, he had a .303/.372/.632 slash line with six homers (27 video games). He is cooled off significantly since then however Cowser remains to be somebody I am holding on to. Fantasy managers have two predominant considerations with Cowser. One being his regression and the opposite being his enjoying time. With regard to the latter concern, there should not be any concern.
Austin Hays return from the IL had many believing that Cowser would see extra time on the bench. Particularly towards LHP. Final Sunday when the Orioles confronted a lefty, it was Cedric Mullins who sat for Hays, though Cowser did slip right down to ninth within the batting order. Whereas Cowser is barely hitting .225/.273/.400 towards LHP, he is been probably the greatest defensive outfielders in baseball. His six OAA (outs above common) is within the 98th percentile.
Colton Cowser clinches the @Orioles win with a HR theft! pic.twitter.com/AVdqgOPqAM
— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2024
Cowser’s glove will preserve him within the lineup as a rule. Given Mullins is barely hitting .185/.230/.327 this yr (and .133/.170/.178 towards LHP), Cowser seems like having the benefit in terms of beginning towards lefties. In relation to his regression, Cowser was by no means going to keep up his torrid tempo to start out the season. However his Could slash line of .188/.305/.275 can also be not going to chop it.
Cowser’s dwelling run final Sunday was his first in over a month. He scored a run in 5 consecutive video games earlier than yesterday’s 0-for-4 efficiency. Perhaps the final week can ignite one other surge from the rookie outfielder. We have additionally seen Cowser moved as much as the cleanup spot twice this week. That highlights the arrogance the Orioles have of their younger outfielder.
I am not predicting one other month like April however Cowser ought to have the ability to be productive over the rest of 2024, particularly on such a potent offense. I might be inclined to carry him for now. Assuming he is an everyday fixture within the Orioles lineup, Cowser’s offensive numbers will solely enhance on Could’s manufacturing.
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