Bell-cow working backs within the NFL have grow to be about as uncommon as having a optimistic interplay on social media. In consequence, it is getting extraordinarily tough to discover a workhorse again in fantasy soccer drafts. That makes our job as fantasy gamers trickier.
Whereas we sometimes wish to goal backfields with bell-cow rushers, there are occasions we should always proceed with warning. Fantasy players discovered this lesson with Alexander Mattison final 12 months. Simply because a participant is poised to steer the backfield, it doesn’t imply he’ll proceed to take action as soon as the season begins.
Be sure you observe RotoBaller on X and take a look at RotoBaller.com for all of your fantasy soccer wants. With that mentioned, listed below are 5 one-man backfields to keep away from in your 2024 fantasy soccer draft.
Remember to verify all of our fantasy soccer rankings for 2024 fantasy soccer drafts:
Whereas Jacobs loved a profession 12 months in 2022, his 2023 season was a disappointment. He completed because the RB28 one 12 months faraway from an RB3 end. Much more troubling have been a few of Jacobs’ superior metrics. He completed forty fifth in Subsequent Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), forty first in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Try (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Factors Information Suite’s Missed Tackles Pressured Per Try (MTF/ATT). These are regarding marks, and outdoors of his 2022 season, Jacobs has by no means been a really environment friendly participant.
The staff additionally drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd within the third spherical of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was probably the greatest backs within the class on pure expertise, however he has a serious fumbling drawback. The Packers have acknowledged they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s movie. If that assertion is true, it makes you marvel how the staff views Jacobs.
Inexperienced Bay does have an out in Jacobs’ contract after this season. It might probably get out of the deal for less than a $9 million useless cap hit. If he continues to battle, Inexperienced Bay may give Lloyd an prolonged run with extra touches. There’s just a bit an excessive amount of danger to advocate investing in Jacobs.
The Chicago Bears started their offseason by signing Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. The 2023 season was a profession 12 months for him. He gathered over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000 rushing-yard mark for the primary time in his profession.
D’ANDRE SWIFT TOUCHDOWN #FlyEaglesFly
pic.twitter.com/DjUFTGBSaJ
— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) October 1, 2023
Whereas Swift’s surface-level stats look good, the underlying metrics paint a special image. He completed solely fortieth in RYOE. Amongst working backs with a minimum of 90 carries, Swift completed thirty second in Elusive Ranking, thirty sixth in PFF’s Dashing Grade, and thirtieth in Fantasy Factors Information Suite’s Missed Tackles Pressured Per Try (MTF/ATT). this information, it’s unclear that Swift is even one of the best working again on the Bears roster.
Teammate Khalil Herbert graded increased than Swift in each one of many above metrics. Herbert completed ninth in Elusive Ranking, twentieth in RYOE, ninth in MTF/ATT, and was PFF’s 14th-highest-graded rusher. It’s not unreasonable to counsel he might ultimately emerge as the popular again. Now, there have been rumors that Herbert might be on the roster bubble. Ought to he be launched, it could clearly take away some main competitors. Nonetheless, it nonetheless doesn’t imply Swift is totally protected if his play stays subpar.
There’s precedent for a staff turning away from a again after signing him to a giant contract. Simply final 12 months, we noticed the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal. If Swift struggles or accidents plague him, don’t be stunned if Herbert or another person can wrestle the beginning job away.
Kamara enters his age-29 season absolutely entrenched because the staff’s beginning working again. He had one other sturdy season as he completed as the general RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy factors per recreation (PPG).
#Saints RB Alvin Kamara catches and runs for a 18-Yard Landing. The Saints even the sport in Indy#Saints– 7
1Q#Colts– 7
— SportsCastProductions (@SportsCastProd) October 29, 2023
Regardless of the sturdy exhibiting, he appears to be a participant in decline. Kamara posted profession lows in dashing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per goal (Y/TGT). His superior metrics don’t encourage a ton of confidence, both.
Reminder- out of 49 RBs with 90+ carries Alvin Kamara ranked:
fortieth in @FantasyPtsData MTF/ATT
forty sixth in @NextGenStats RYOE
forty seventh in @PFF Elusive Ranking
He appears to be a participant in decline and is a straightforward fade in fantasy soccer drafts.
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) June 26, 2024
Kamara nonetheless holds worth in PPR leagues due to his work as a pass-catcher. One other sturdy fantasy end is feasible, however he seems to be on his final legs. Working backs can fall off the age cliff very quick and take their worth with them. It is best to keep away from Kamara this 12 months.
The 2023 season was a real breakout season for White as he completed because the PPR RB4.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Landing!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
Regardless that White delivered the products for fantasy managers, issues get a bit regarding once we look beneath the hood. Amongst 49 rushers with a minimum of 90 carries, White completed:
forty second in MTF/ATT
forty ninth in RYOE
forty fourth in PFF’s Dashing Grade
twenty eighth in PFF’s Elusive Ranking
fortieth in Fantasy Factors Information Suite’s Explosive Run Proportion (EXP RUN %)
Right here is how White completed in these identical metrics as a rookie in 2022 (Amongst 48 rushers with 90+ carries):
forty sixth in MTF/ATT
thirty ninth RYOE
forty sixth in PFF Dashing Grade
forty first in Elusive Ranking
thirty eighth in Exp Run %
Two years in, we’ve sufficient information to say White is a below-average again on the NFL degree. It might solely be a matter of time till his inefficiency catches up with him.
Mixon was traded from the Cincinnati Bengals to the Houston Texans within the opening days of NFL free company. He now performs alongside C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. Whereas many suppose that is nice information for Mixon’s 2024 season, we could wish to pump the brakes a bit.
Regardless of seeing many gentle containers the final two years with the Bengals, Mixon hasn’t been in a position to take benefit. Per Subsequent Gen Stats, Mixon noticed 8+ defenders within the field on the Fifteenth-lowest charge final season. Regardless of this benefit, he solely completed twenty seventh in RYOE and could not muster greater than 4.0 yards per carry. He did not fare significantly better towards gentle containers in 2022, both. In line with Sharp Soccer, Mixon had the very best proportion of his runs come towards gentle containers in 2022. Amongst backs with 100+ carries, he was thirty ninth in yards after contact per carry, thirty fourth in runs of 10+ yards, and thirty sixth in yards per carry.
It is also price questioning whether or not Mixon is an effective match for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s system.
My concern right here is identical because it was with Dameon Pierce.
“He is runner, however he won’t be an incredible match for Slowik’s Shanahan-influenced outdoors zone working scheme.”
Man / Hole Idea Runs [2022-2023]
Dameon Pierce: 4.05 YPC
Joe Mixon: 4.45 YPC
Zone Idea Runs… https://t.co/b1XPhuajdJ
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 12, 2024
Mixon didn’t capitalize when seeing gentle containers in Cincinnati enjoying with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There is not something to counsel Mixon will reap the benefits of a equally favorable scenario in Houston. He additionally turns 28 this summer time. We won’t fully rule out his play falling off a cliff. If that occurs, given his profession 4.1 YPC, we might be a catastrophe season within the worst-case situation. It is higher to move and let somebody extra bullish take Mixon.
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