Welcome to the Dynasty Mailbag! My aim is to carry you ideas, perception and analysis on essentially the most urgent dynasty subjects.
Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher eventualities and fiddle with enjoyable “what ifs.”
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The Offseason Dilema
“What’s one of the simplest ways to navigate indecision about buying and selling within the offseason? In the event you discover what appears like a reasonably truthful commerce however do not know if you wish to commerce since you are simply getting antsy with no soccer taking place and fewer strikes being made on a weekly foundation or if you wish to commerce since you assume it’s fairly first rate on your crew?”
That is in all probability among the finest dynasty questions I’ve ever gotten as a result of it encompasses so many various eventualities. In the event you’re a real dynasty supervisor, you understand there is not any actual offseason. Sure, it is good to take some down time possibly after the NFL season is over after which regroup for the next yr, however you are all the time “in-season.”
Which is why it may be difficult to know in case you’re making offseason trades simply since you’re bored or in case you’re really making your crew higher.
I’ve discovered most of this comes all the way down to choice. Personally, I am a reasonably conservative dynasty supervisor within the offseason. A lot can change between the NFL Draft and Week 1 that I am not all the time tremendous snug being aggressive about issues I haven’t got full confidence in.
Nonetheless, that is additionally the place the potential upside lies. In the event you’re trying to commerce away a identified commodity (veteran) for an unknown (rookie), the danger/reward may very well be price it.
A lot of this boils all the way down to having a very good really feel on your roster and the place it matches throughout the bigger ecosystem of your league. Is your crew within the top-third, middle-third, or bottom-third? Are you at present the odds-on favourite to win the championship or will you probably miss the playoffs? When you perceive that, you could be extra intentional about making offseason strikes.
Lastly, a lot of creating good strikes in dynasty leagues comes all the way down to timing. Over the course of the calendar yr, numerous property turn out to be extra and fewer priceless. Within the offseason and heading into the NFL Draft, rookie picks are all the craze. Nonetheless, as you close to your league’s commerce deadline or fantasy playoffs, rookie picks turn out to be cheaper in favor of established veterans. Understanding the market cycle and timing your buys/sells can assist make you a extra knowledgeable dynasty supervisor.
Dontayvion Wicks SZN?
“What would you pay for Wicks proper now in dynasty?”
Everytime you begin drawing even minor comparisons to an elite participant like Davante Adams, it should garner some consideration. Particularly if you begin placing collectively a couple of strong performances on the sphere.
As a rookie, Dontayvion Wicks completed third amongst Inexperienced Bay wideouts in targets (58), receptions (39) and receiving yards (581). Three of his 4 TDs got here within the closing three weeks of the yr, and he additionally scored towards Dallas within the playoffs.
This is how the Packers 4 wideouts in contrast through the common season.
For being basically the fourth choice, why is Wicks getting extra consideration this offseason? It is all about projecting ahead and taking a better have a look at what his true upside may very well be.
Chris Allen lately tabbed Wicks as one in every of his 2024 WR Sleepers and had this to say in regards to the budding prospect:
Objectively, Wicks’ contextualized workload emphasizes he has extra worth than his ADP suggests.
Play-Motion Targets: 2nd (crew goal share), 1st (targets per route run)Third-/Fourth-Down Targets: third, 1stYPRR: 2ndFirst Downs per Goal: 1st
These are all good metrics for a growing WR. Nonetheless, the one which caught my eye was his utilization in two-WR units. Inexperienced Bay ran ideas with two receivers on the sphere on the seventh-highest price in 2023. In these units, Wicks had the best TPRR price, even with Watson and Doubs energetic. His 3.81 YPRR was greater than the opposite two mixed (1.19, 1.80). In the meantime, Reed barely noticed the sphere, touching the ball simply as soon as on this personnel grouping.
As of this writing, listed below are the dynasty rankings of Inexperienced Bay’s wideouts:
With all that in thoughts, making an allowance for what I believe his position and upside may very well be, I’d be keen to commerce a (late) future 2nd spherical decide for Wicks.
Yr 2 Breakouts
“Which of those second-year vast receivers are you focusing on in dynasty leagues and could have essentially the most worth after the 2024 season?”
The 2023 WR class introduced a ton of intriguing dynasty property. Some carried out higher than others, whereas some left fantasy managers wanting a bit extra. For sake of readability, this is the place Fantasy Life has every of them ranked in dynasty as of this writing:
All are inside 10 spots of one another, which makes this a extremely enjoyable query to dive into. In my thoughts, it is a two-part query. I simply tabbed each Addison and JSN as dynasty commerce targets, as I believe each are prime candidates to see a rise in dynasty worth now that they’ve fallen off a bit.
Nonetheless, I believe Rice is the one I need to goal from a long-term perspective. As a rookie, he paced all Kansas Metropolis wideouts in targets (102), receptions (79) and receiving yards (938) and led the crew in receiving TDs (7).
In reality, following a Week 10 bye, Rice grew to become a near-full-time participant and posted robust utilization charges throughout the board. He additionally completed as a top-15 WR 4 occasions throughout that stretch whereas by no means ending decrease than WR38.
Sure, the off-the-field points will probably price him some video games, and the Chiefs did deal with the place by drafting Xavier Worthy and signing Marquise Brown. Nonetheless, in dynasty codecs, it is onerous to disregard the position Rice carved out for himself as a rookie and the way his utilization ought to solely proceed to develop with the very best HC/QB mixture within the league.
