Okay, let’s begin with a confession.
Perhaps the primary 4 phrases of this text’s headline are a slight exaggeration. As a result of in fantasy soccer, I don’t absolutely subscribe to binary absolute statements like “Do Not Draft,” or “You Should Draft.” Each workforce and draft is totally different. What makes worth such an interesting (and possibly overused) idea in our sport is that it’s 100% subjective. A participant I would like no a part of might be a coveted asset for another person.
However we even have to attract a line within the sand someplace, in any other case, my solely recommendation for you’d be “do what you suppose feels greatest,” which is the largest cop-out conceivable.
So for all intents and functions, listed here are the quarterbacks who I’m telling you to avoid in your drafts this summer season. Right here’s my don’t draft checklist for the quarterback place in fantasy soccer this season.
Fantasy Soccer Do Not Draft Record
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
We start our checklist by betting in opposition to the QB2 in 2023. What can go incorrect? At a place like quarterback, the place most leagues solely begin one participant, it’ll be onerous to go up Jalen Hurts if he drops into the fourth or fifth spherical. However I gained’t be taking him at his present common draft place (ADP) of twenty fifth total.
Hurts is as electrical of a fantasy asset as you possibly can ask for. And the tush push was virtually a cheat code for anybody who had him a season in the past. Whereas his 15 dashing touchdowns (probably the most ever for a QB in a single season) have been great, they represented 24.1% of his fantasy scoring a season in the past, which feels unsustainable.
Hurts’ record-setting scoring additionally masked the very fact his passing effectivity dropped within the back-end of the season, which coincided with Philadelphia’s collapse as a workforce. His passing yards per sport dropped by virtually 20 yards in comparison with the 2022 season, and his adjusted internet yards per go try decreased from 7.31 to five.96 yards.
So, on the floor, Hurts had a fantasy large yr. However the passing numbers present an underlying concern. Hurts nonetheless has to develop from a progressions and subject studying standpoint.
I’m additionally not right here to let you know the tush push goes away utterly. However with Saquon Barkley on the town, we may see a few of Hurts’ dashing touchdowns go to him. And I really suppose Philadelphia goes to be smarter on the subject of preserving their franchise quarterback, who was hampered by nagging accidents at varied factors within the season. And once more, 15 dashing touchdowns by a quarterback is insane.
While you take a quarterback this excessive in drafts, you want him to be sensational to beat the worth you’re passing on at extra scarce positions like operating again and receiver. A wholesome Hurts is a secure wager to complete as a top-five QB in fantasy, however he might have to point out extra strides as a passer to succeed in final season’s numbers.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
I’ve been a Herbert backer since he entered the NFL and am strapped to him in a posh dynasty league I’m in. However sadly, issues have taken a brutal flip for the QB2 in 2021. And 2024 might be his roughest yr but from a fantasy perspective.
By now you realize the Chargers employed Jim Harbaugh as their head coach, who reunited with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator. And anybody who watched Michigan throughout their Nationwide Championship season is aware of Harbaugh absolutely embraced a smash-mouth identification that sometimes made it seem to be we have been watching a sport from 30 years in the past. The Wolverines even gained a street sport in opposition to Penn State through which J.J. McCarthy, who was a first-round decide on this yr’s draft, threw simply eight passes.
Regardless of Harbaugh’s need to set the sport again in 1985, now we have to watch out on the subject of overreacting to his most popular fashion of play. Sure, the Chargers will in all probability run the ball greater than they did final season (39% of their performs). However understand that even the heaviest dashing workforce within the league final yr (Baltimore) solely ran the ball on 49.9% of their snaps. So when individuals say they anticipate the Chargers to be “run heavy,” do not forget that nonetheless means they’ll in all probability throw the ball half of the time.
That mentioned, Herbert is coming off an injury-shortened yr through which he set career-lows in touchdowns, yards per sport and adjusted internet yards per go try. It’s additionally price mentioning that in all of Roman’s 10 years as a play-caller, he’s solely coached one offense that completed increased than twenty eighth in passing makes an attempt and twenty third in passing yards.
And to prime it off, the Chargers gutted his complete weaponry. Gone are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Left are Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston and rookie Ladd McConkey.
Most gamers are possible solely contemplating Herbert in deeper codecs or 2-QB leagues. And whereas I don’t suppose Los Angeles’ offense shall be horrible, I simply don’t see a ton of weekly upside for Herbert.
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
Ought to Jared Goff be drafted as a QB1? That’s at the moment the place he’s being taken, in line with ADP. I don’t know if I’m going out on a limb or stating the plain by fading him.
Now to be honest, Goff is the QB14 in our skilled consensus rankings (ECR). So I’m primarily reacting to ADP knowledge that can develop into extra irrelevant because the summer season goes on. However I wouldn’t be stunned if Goff turned out to be the most well-liked alternative for gamers who determine to attend on QB. Lions sentiment is sky-high and who wouldn’t need to get a chunk of the person orchestrating this offense?
That’s all effectively and good, however take into accout Goff ranked fifteenth in fantasy factors per sport and put up seven video games with 15 factors or fewer regardless of the ascension of the Lions’ offense.
I additionally suspect we’ll see opposing defenses alter to Detroit’s offense, with the principle adjustment being clogging up the brief and intermediate areas of the sector whereas daring Goff to beat them with deep throws. Goff is a comparatively risk-averse passer and I’m not 100% bought on Jameson Williams being the constant downfield risk this offense wants to succeed in an elite stage. Goff can be a quarterback able to crumbling beneath strain, which suggests Detroit’s offensive line might want to stay elite and intact.
Goff is somebody I’m extra keen to take if I’m going quarterback by committee, slotting him in probably the most advantageous matchups. However he’s not somebody I’m drafting as my starter except I’m determined.
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